Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by about 7% in 2026, according to Omdia. Rising memory prices and tight supply are increasing production costs for smartphone vendors, forcing many brands to raise retail prices, which could weaken demand – especially in price-sensitive markets.
If memory shortages continue and geopolitical tensions increase economic volatility, shipments could fall by more than 15%, potentially worse than the 12% decline seen in 2022.
Lower-priced smartphones are expected to be hit the hardest. Devices under $100 could drop by nearly 31%, while the $100–$399 segment may also contract as higher component costs push prices upward.
In contrast, the premium segment (above $800) is forecast to grow by about 4%, supported by strong brands like Apple and Samsung, which have stronger supply chains and greater flexibility to absorb rising component costs.
Overall, rising costs and weaker demand are likely to reshape the smartphone supply chain, pushing vendors to simplify devices, reduce production volumes, and focus more on higher-value products.
Source: Omdia
