Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 12.2% in 2026 to 1.09 billion units, according to Omdia, as rising component costs and economic uncertainty reshape the market. Despite lower shipment volumes, overall market value is forecast to grow 6.1%, driven by a record increase in average selling prices, which are expected to jump from $467 to $565 per device.
The shift is largely due to soaring memory costs, with DRAM and NAND prices rising sharply in early 2026. To protect profits, smartphone makers are focusing on premium and mid-range devices while reducing low-end offerings. Emerging markets such as Africa, the Middle East and Latin America are expected to be hit hardest by higher prices, while developed markets should remain more resilient.
Omdia expects market weakness to continue into 2027, with meaningful shipment growth unlikely until 2028. The ultra-budget smartphone segment is also expected to increasingly move away from major global brands and toward smaller regional manufacturers.
Source: Omdia
